El-Nino and Indian IT

El-nino

 

   Tahiti is an Island of French Polynesia, which is located in the South Pacific, exactly on midway of the flight path between Adelaide in Australia and Quito in Equador South America. It’s as big as Bangalore city (including the sub-urban areas). But the comparison ends there. While Bangalore has one of it’s wettest month (July/August), Tahiti has one of it’s driest month of the year. Though these two places are seemingly disconnected in terms of culture or economy, there seems to be a link in their weather. Tahiti, being in the south pacific is in the middle of the El-Nino symptoms. A low pressure condition at Tahiti results in reduced rainfall at Bangalore (and in general across the plains of India). This interlink between weather systems in Pacific and Indian Monsoon is called El-Nino effect. Indian Meteorologists are like hawks in finding out occurrence of El-Nino as it would mean reduced rainfall which would mean drought in the plains of India. Indian Agriculture that depends on rainfall, contributes 15% to the Indian Economy and El-Nino occurrence would be a dampener on the GDP of the country.

   A phenomenon similar to El-Nino is observable in the Indian IT industry. Indian IT brings in about $ 118 Billion to the economy (i.e., about 8% of the Indian GDP). The IT heavy wights like Infosys, WIPRO, Cognizant, IBM and HCL not only make a huge contribution to this number, they also employ more than half of the 1.5 million software professionals in the country. Huge numbers these. And of course attrition is a problem the HR’s in these companies keep fighting against. A good year for HR (a downturn year) would see the attrition drop to high single digits. Otherwise the attrition rates average around 15% for these top five companies. 15% of 750,000 which is around 100,000 positions to be filled in each year. These positions give create a low pressure area to which prospective employees move into from other companies. (can you observe patterns of weather here?).

Wonder what would happen if attrition at these companies drop to nil (every HR’s dream)?
Will the environment become static instead of its current fluidic state?
Will the companies become stagnant (without new ideas or innovations)?
Will that be the doomsday Indian IT industry sans innovation.

Albert Einstein once mentioned that ‘If the Honey bees go extinct, Human society will follow in 4 years‘.
Does it apply to attrition and Indian IT as well?
We don’t want an El-Nino condition in Indian IT. do we?
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